OPINION: Turkish Cyprus: Presidential Elections and More
My hypothesis is a Tatar — Erhürman or Akıncı final ballot to be held next week in which Tatar becomes the next president of Turkish Cyprus. Korsan Cevdet writes.
11 October 2020
@KorsanCevdet
Today is election day in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (Turkish Cyprus). Presidential elections are held every five years on the island’s north, however, due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, this year’s elections were postponed from the 26th of April to the 11th of October 2020. If a candidate cannot garner more than 50 percent of the popular vote, then a second round will be held on the 18th of October. If this scenario materializes, which is rather likely, then the top two candidates will have to broaden their support and appeal to the masses in order to be elected as Turkish Cyprus’ next president. Expectations are that today’s results will require a run-off ballot to complete the process as no single candidate appears to be in a position to pass the 50 percent threshold.
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For the first time in Turkish Cyprus’ history, there are a total of 11 candidates vying for the presidency. These candidates represent the major parties from across the political spectrum and include 7 purportedly independent candidates. Ersin Tatar is among the leading candidates as he is the current prime minister and leader of the National Unity Party (UBP) — Turkish Cyprus’ most established and single largest political establishment. Tatar appears to be the front runner in this campaign and will likely come out on top of today’s vote. Tufan Erhürman is a former Prime Minister and the leader of Republic Turkish Party (CTP) — the second largest party in parliament and currently Turkish Cyprus’ dominant opposition. Erhan Arıklı is representing the Rebirth Party (YDP) — the smallest party in parliament, and Fuat Türköz Çiner is the Nationalist Democracy Party’s (MDP) candidate. MDP is a marginal party and is not represented in parliament.
The leading independent candidates are Mustafa Akıncı, Kudret Ӧzersay, and Serdar Denktaş. But, anyone who knows anything about politics in Turkish Cyprus will appreciate that these independents aren’t really independent; they are all seasoned politicians and are ‘part and parcel’ of the political system. Akıncı is the incumbent president and a former, long-time mayor of the nation’s capital, Nicosia (Lefkoşa). Akıncı was also a parliamentarian, having led the Communal Democracy Party (TKP) and held ministerial positions in the 1990s and 2000s. Akıncı is making a desperate effort to be re-elected, but his poor leadership over the past five years does not bode well for his chances. Akıncı made a mockery of Turkish Cyprus’ political leadership and failed abysmally at Crans-Montana as he made unthinkable concessions to Greek Cyprus without getting anything in return, thereby, weakening Turkish Cyprus’ negotiating position. A number of critics, including yours truly, feel strongly that Akıncı’s conduct in Switzerland should have resulted in his impeachment. Akıncı may not make it past today’s first round today, because CTP, also on the left, has a strong candidate and is the second largest and one of the most established parties in Turkish Cyprus. Ӧzersay is a former lead settlement negotiator, who awed the masses during the last presidential campaign as he was a true independent that represented change and was not tainted with any party’s baggage or misdeeds. Ӧzersay took a hard line on anti-corruption and accountability which won him kudos as there are systemic problems across Turkish Cyprus that need to be resolved if sustainable growth opportunities are to be achieved. Ӧzersay now leads the People’s Party (HP) with 9 seats in parliament and while initially popular, his support has waned and is not likely to make it past today’s first round. Denktaş is the son of Turkish Cyprus’ founding president, the late Rauf Raıf Denktaş, and is the former leader of the Democrat Party (DP). Denktaş is still a sitting member of parliament and has held a number of critical ministerial portfolios over the past three decades, but fails to compare to the stature of his father. There is no chance that Denktaş will be elected President.
So, what is at stake? A pessimist could say, “Nothing much” as Cyprus is a benign conflict which has effectively been dormant since the summer of 1974. There have been a handful of exceptional incidents across the Greenline over the past 46 years, but things have generally been stable since the opening of the border in 2003. Every few years, we see some hoopla and fanfare in which leading politicians from both sides agree to engage in diplomatic niceties and resume settlement negotiations to no avail. Leaders from both sides, with the handy expertise of their advisors and specialist teams enjoy all-inclusive, high-profile trips to London, New York, and Switzerland, only to conclude that no progress can be made. The elephant in the room is very large, visible and distinguished: a settlement cannot be achieved because Turkish Cyprus and Greek Cyprus have irreconcilable differences, yet people have had difficulty accepting this fact. That is, until recently.
After decades of senseless UN sponsored negotiations, finally, parts of Turkish Cyprus’ political establishment are listening to critics and are calling for a two-republic settlement and permanent solution that is based on recognized partition, not federalism or a confederation. All options other than partition have failed and proven to be impossible for Cyprus’ conflicting and independent nations — yes, that is its Greeks and Turks. In this campaign, parties on the right have openly campaigned for a new strategy — that is, TAKSİM and alignment with Turkey. Akıncı and Erhürman have not learned from their past mistakes and insist on pursuing a defeatist, federal solution which Greek Cyprus has no interest in pursuing because they currently enjoy recognition as the sole arbiter of power. Unlike Akıncı and Erhürman, candidates from the right now openly argue in favour of new approaches to integrate within the international system through alignment with Turkey, instead of returning to an inconclusive negotiating process that produces no results and wastes time, resources, and hope.
True, recognition of Turkish Cyprus will not be easy, because Greek Cyprus will do everything in its ability, including leveraging the European Union (EU), to block Turkish Cyprus’ constructive propositions. But, recognition is not a precursor to effective integration or development. Taiwan is the primary example of how a non-recognized country can be fully integrated with the global economy and an active member of the international system without being recognized. And, Taiwan’s rival, the People Republic of China, is a much more formidable adversary than Greek Cyprus.
Candidates on the right are now proposing that Turkish Cyprus must take concrete steps to more effectively align with Turkey at the macro-level (i.e. Blue Homeland) and economically. Turkish Cyprus and Turkey need to establish a single, homogenous financial system in which Turkish Cyprus becomes an integral part of Turkey’s economy. All restrictions, limitations, customs, tariffs, etc. must be eliminated, and the two must genuinely become a single economic unit in which Turkish Cyprus is part of a flourishing and sustainable system. Just think for a moment, with a population of approximately 325,000, Turkish Cyprus is merely the size of a small neighbourhood in any major global city. If Turkish Cyprus locally introduces a genuinely accountable and competitive local system (e.g. Channel Island or Singapore) that is integrated with Turkey, then it can become an island paradise with a bustling economy that generates real value for its citizens, residents, and the region. This is the basis from which most parties on the right have changed their strategic campaign focus towards and are now advocating.
The last two weeks of the campaign have been rather heated and a touch controversial. Firstly, the Tatar led UBP — DP coalition government secured financial assistance from Ankara to provide economic relief to the sectors of the economy that experienced material set-backs by the pandemic. This week also saw the resumption of desperately needed fresh water flowing from Mersin across the Mediterranean into Geçitköy Dam; the pipeline was damaged due to bad weather in early 2020 and has now been restored, providing fresh water for Turkish Cyprus. On Thursday, the former resort town of Varosha (Maraş), that was closed off since 1974, had a few streets and beach strips partially re-opened to visitors with plans for re-development, including an offer to have original deed holders return under the authority of Turkish Cyprus. Granted, there are unsettled disputes on land ownership that need to be settled, but the re-opening is being done with due care and diligence to produce a win — win outcome. Lastly, a new emergency hospital, built with Turkey’s assistance is about to become operational. This will help Turkish Cyprus address its emergency care needs arising from COVID-19.
Needless to say, some candidates are crying foul and suggesting that Turkey is trying to influence the outcome of the presidential elections by supporting events that are seen to be in favour of Tatar’s candidacy. Truth be told, these developments, with the exception of Maraş being partial re-opened, will help all of Turkish Cyprus and were led under the coalition government of UBP — DP. Ӧzersay was particularly displeased with Maraş’s re-opening and withdrew HP from the coalition government.
What is most disappointing with the current situation is that some candidates, particularly those on the left, have selective memory. Bank in 2004, CTP and TKP were perfectly fine and accepting of Turkey’s open support and endorsement of the Annan Plan, but now they oppose the delivery and execution of strategic projects? Similarly, during the Annan Plan campaign, CTP, TKP, and the rest of the ‘Yes be Annem’ campaign received substantial assistance and foreign financial support from non-Turkish circles, yet that was fine, and they have a problem with Turkey fulfilling its guarantor obligations? Turkey is always involved with supporting Turkish Cyprus’ strategic projects that aim to foster greater development, growth, and social stability. While the timing of some of these developments can be constructively challenged, they are not extraordinary developments and have all been work-in-progress initiatives. In contrast, the left in Turkish Cyprus always enjoy the support of Western powers and Greek Cyprus because they support and typically pursue positions that weaken Turkish Cyprus and could lead to neutralizing Turkish sovereignty in North Cyprus, but this is unlikely to happen.
In the end, the ballots of the first round of Turkish Cyprus’ 2020 presidential elections will be counted between 18:00 and 22:00 this evening. My hypothesis is a Tatar — Erhürman or Akıncı final ballot to be held next week in which Tatar becomes the next president of Turkish Cyprus.
Korsan Cevdet writes op- eds on politics, international relations, and global political economy. Cevdet holds Turkish and Canadian citizenship and has an MA in Poli Sci and MBA. Tweets @KorsanCevdet.
